Deribit Exchange Data Shows Bitcoin’s Bullish Sentiment Cooling as Options Market Turns Neutral

Bitcoin's previously strong long-term bullish sentiment is showing signs of weakening. The 180-day skew—a critical metric measuring the difference in implied volatility between call and put options on Deribit—has flattened at zero, indicating a shift from Optimism to neutrality. This pattern resembles conditions observed at the start of the 2022 bear market, as noted by BloFin's Griffin Ardern.

"The options market now reflects reduced expectations for BTC to maintain sustained upward momentum," Ardern explained, drawing comparisons to January-February 2022 when similar trends preceded an extended downturn. Put options, which act as downside protection, now hold equal weight to calls in long-term pricing—a significant change from earlier this year when bullish sentiment dominated.

Market participants appear increasingly cautious due to macroeconomic challenges. Inflation concerns and warnings of a potential 2026 bear cycle are influencing risk assessments. The neutral skew suggests traders now see balanced probabilities between Bitcoin breaking out or breaking down over the next six months.